People on the Move as the World Warms
Eliza Barclay
Natural climate change and natural disasters have been disrupting and displacing humans for millennia. But now man-made climate change is challenging the way we understand and forecast these phenomena. Among the many questions stumping climate researchers is how to measure the ways the warming planet is uprooting people, and perhaps even driving them into conflict.
The numbers, though, are hard to pinpoint and constantly changing: the International Office of Migration, an intergovernmental organization established in 1951, estimates that 200 million people will be forced to move because of the changing climate by 2050, while other groups have said it could be as high as 700 million.
Of particular concern is the mounting frequency and intensity of climate-related events like heat waves, floods, droughts and storms. In 2008 alone, more than 20 million people were displaced by climate-related sudden-onset disasters such as floods and storms, according to a 2009 study by the Norwegian Refugee Council. Of the 20 disasters in 2008 with the highest levels of displacement, 17 were in Asia. Scientists expect climate-related disasters to continue to increase as the climate warms and meteorological, hydrological and climatological systems adjust to new conditions.
