Tracking the Flu

Mark S. Smolinski, MD, MPH

By May 11, 2009, a swine flu detected just two months earlier in an outbreak in Mexico and the United States had spread to 30 countries raising the threat level to 5 on the global flu scale. On June 11, 2009, the director-general of the World Health Organization further elevated it to level 6: a flu pandemic. While alarming, this should not have been a complete surprise as leading scientists have, for years, been foretelling a flu pandemic was "not a matter of if, but when."

Swine flu is initially showing us its ability to spread, while fortunately, not yet baring its ‘teeth.' Maybe it hasn't cut teeth yet, but it does have a name: novel influenza A, or H1N1. While some may take solace in its low lethality, the speed alone in which this single virus traversed the globe is impressive. But what do we really understand about the spread of flu?

We can learn a great deal from this particular moment in history and perhaps even change the story that will be told of the influenza pandemic of 2009.